A “NO” for the fall of the economy. What does the Greek referendum mean for the country?

Today the Greeks go for a referendum but the unlike the Scottish referendum, the question seems unclear; rather it would be right to say that the interpretation of the question seems unclear. The Greek people are asked if Greece should agree to the bailout package that has been offered to it by the European Union, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. This referendum however practically makes no sense because the IMF has made it clear that it will not give any more money to Greece unless it gets what it has been owed. This referendum however is a way to ask the people of Greece if they are willing to accept more strict austerity measures or no, this is a very important referendum not for the people but for the current government. They have come into power with the promise that they will not accept any more austerity measures while at the same time the institutes that have been giving Greece the bailout money are not ready to lend anymore unless the previous loan is paid and the government agrees on more austerity measures. Because given the present condition, the institutes do not see them getting their money back and giving more money to Greece will only mean more trouble for them. If the referendum is voted YES, meaning that Greece should accept the bailout package (which is actually off the table), then this will give the current leftist government to try and broker a deal where they agree to some austerity measures and even though this goes against their policy, the very grounds through which they were elected, they would have the backing of the people to actually go ahead with it. On the other hand if the Referendum is voted “NO” then among some of the things that would happen, first would be the resignation of the Greek Prime Minister and Finance minister leading to fresh election with almost no possibility of the leftist party coming to power again. Apart from this, there will be other things that will follow the NO:

1. Greece will have to leave the Euro zone, if only temporary, because the current debt to GDP ratio is so high that it does not allow Greece’s economy to function in Euro.
2. If Greece does exit the Euro Zone and goes back to its own currency then the loan deals will have higher percent of interest given the history of the Greece economy.
3.  The condition of the Greek economy will become so bad that it will never be able to join the Euro Zone.
4. There will be outflow of the youth from the country, as they will bet better opportunities in other countries.

They citizens know that if they vote yes then also, there are going to be problems and if they vote no still there are going to be problems but they have faced enough problems by staying in the euro zone and the last thing they will want is more austerity measures. It is not going to be easy for the Greeks to say yes to more austerity measures. The sudden impulse would lead them to go for a no but given the history of the Greek economy, the lifestyle of the people and the current debt-to-GDP ratio; it would be best for the country to accept partial austerity measures and work towards the payment of the debt while slowly restructure the economy. For this, the Greeks will have to make some sacrifices such as giving up their pension funds and start to work, increase the age for retirement and grow industries that will lead to more export. The restructuring is had and will probably happen over a decade but it is the only solution where these crises do not repeat itself.

fortune or fortune 500?

I have always thought about writing a blog but always ended up thinking what to write. I was once told that writing is when you start writing not when you are doing research or gathering the data or just sitting around and planning, so here I am writing, not sure what it would exactly will be but I do have some ideas. I am going to do what I do best, sit lazy and think.

I plan to start with this experience that I have had yesterday and the thoughts that followed. 

Yesterday I went to the Taj Ambassador to pick up a guest who had flown down from Berlin, during our drive we were having a conversation when he asked me where I was from and I said that I am from Ahmedabad, from the state of Gujarat. And I was both shocked and filled with pride at what he had to say. He said that “Oh, so you Chief Minister has now become the Prime Minister”, I was happy because  I no more had to explain where Gujarat is, I no more have to say that it’s a state to the north of Mumbai. I love Mumbai, always have, but I am also proud to be a Gujju. When I was traveling in the metro I thought about what had happened and I remembered the closing speech of the then CM of Gujarat during Vibrant Gujarat 2013 where he said that that time is close when Gujarat will no more be know just as a state to the north of Mumbai. I am sure he did not mean it in the way it turned out to be however it does strike a bell in my mind, is it possible that he knew he was going to become the PM of India?

We know that there are people whose only job is to plan, plan 5, 10 and 15 years ahead. It’s a good thing, it helps us be prepared for the future but what is not right is the fact that none of it is shared! It makes me wonder if we are nothing but just puppets in their hands but WHO are they? It is true that subconsciously we are doing what others want us to do, thinking that yes, this is what I want from my life, is this what I am going to do! There are so many questions and the answer is nothing but speculation and theories. What if none of them are true? Will it ever be known? Is the truth ever going to come out? All this makes no sense to me, I am sure you are just as confused as me, maybe irritated as to what the hell I am saying, to be frank I have no idea and as I said earlier I am just a thinker.

I am a believer of the chaos theory, I would like to explain this theory in very simple words by saying that whatever happens, happens for a reason and that in the end it somehow turns out to be just fine… will it be actually fine or the fact that we have gone so used to it is what makes it seem normal, so very normal?! I personally feel that we are actually too busy to care about anything for a long time, to busy being insecure and to busy being scared.

Now that the laziness has kicked in, I am going to go to sleep but I am leaving you with these random thoughts and the confused look of what is to follow

Good bye! :D

Disclaimer: I take no responsibility foFr the thoughts, they are just random!!